North Carolina is garnering a great deal of national media attention because it could doom Donald Trump on election night, the first state in the eastern time zone to report results with “reverse coattails.”
Since 2008, only a tiny percentage of North Carolinians split their tickets for president of one party and governor of another party. In the last week, the gubernatorial campaign of Republican Mark Robinson, who was handpicked by Donald Trump, has completely collapsed due to a plethora of extremist and offensive statements and financial scandals. Most of his staff have resigned, fundraising has stopped, and some events have been cancelled. Democrat Josh Stein has surged 17 points ahead of Robinson, 53 percent to 36 percent. NC Republicans are seething (NYT free link).
Trump could be dragged down not only by Robinson but also by weak, extremist Republican candidates for lieutenant governor, attorney general, insurance commissioner, and schools’ superintendent. They all claim, falsely, that the 2020 election was stolen. They all defend Trump supporters’ riot at the US Capitol on January 6, 2021. Robinson labeled himself a “Black Nazi” and called for the assassination of the Rev. Al Sharpton. Michelle Morrow, the candidate for superintendent, called for the execution of Barack Obama and for a military coup.
Kamala Harris, who is essentially tied with Trump in North Carolina, has wasted no time reminding voters that Trump and Robinson are joined at the hip.
Now would be a good time for NC Republicans to ask themselves how did party culture lead to the promotion of people like Mark Robinson, Michelle Morrow, Dan Bishop (the extremist candidate for Attorney General), and Mike Causey, the insurance commissioner who has approved 16 rate hikes since 2017 (See Ratehikemike.com).
I have to believe that the party's veneration of Donald Trump's flaws -- "callousness, arrogance and win-at-all-costs credo" as clinical psychologist Mary Trump described them -- played a role, along with complete lack of empathy for others.
Just as Adolph Hitler inspired "little Hitlers" in German culture, Donald Trump has inspired "little Trumps" in the Republican Party. Mark Robinson is the most prominent example, but not the only one.
Could a believable fictional character be created in 21st century America who has the professed views and behaviors of Mark Robinson or Donald Trump? (It would be hard to believe.)
Clearly, Robinson got positive feedback online for his angry rants -- and even invitations to speak at fundamentalist mega-churches and other organizations -- from so-called conservatives and Republicans, as if he was an archetype of the prison guard or the angry father offering toughness to stereotypical "young bucks." Callousness, arrogance, near total lack of empathy for others are part of Robinson's credo just like with Trump. Robinson's downfall was foolishly signing his real name on a porn site, along with sloppy financial record-keeping and business practices.
It is poetic justice if Mark Robinson, who made his political career in NC as an Internet troll telling white supremacist Republicans what they wanted to hear, takes down Donald Trump, who did the same nationally.
But Are Undecided NC Voters Paying Full Attention?
As I canvass neighborhoods in swing districts, I wonder if distracted voters realize their full power? How this state goes in the election will probably come down to a few thousand or possibly a few hundred votes within the margin of error of any poll.
North Carolina voters who are casually half interested (or less) in the election, still wavering, do not realize they probably hold the keys to the whole thing, to whether Trump or Harris wins, and to America's future. The fate of the republic will be decided in places like Nash County (Rocky Mount), which voted for every winner since 2008, by a few hundred votes.
This may be the way history is made. "On what slender threads do life and fortune hang." -- Alexandre Dumas, The Count of Monte Christo.
National News Coverage
The New Yorker: Will Mark Robinson Derail Trump's Chances in North Carolina? by Peter Slevin. "He needs to win the state, but he's standing by the GOP's gubernatorial nominee, whose campaign is imploding." Democrats have a strong ground game. Might the 250,000 who voted for Nikki Haley in the primary vote for Harris or stay home? Might the "Chamber of Commerce, country-club Republicans refrain from voting?"
How Kamala Harris Hopes to Take North Carolina for the Democrats. Click. By Peter Slevin. No Democrat has won the state since Barack Obama, in 2008, but Party strategists are betting that heading to more rural areas could put them over the top. "The Harris campaign now has more than two hundred and thirty paid staff members in North Carolina, including at least a hundred and seventy assigned to twenty-six field offices around the state."
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