The Roman senator, consul, and historian Boethius (c. 480–524 AD) explained the fate of nations, empires, and societies more than a millennium and a half ago in his immortal treatise On the Consolidation of Philosophy. My friend Bruce Johnson explained in an email:
The ups and downs of secular cultures are controlled by “the wheel of fortune” which has only one lasting rule: whatever goes up will come back down, and vice versa.
Boethius wrote: “I know the manifold deceits of that monstrous lady, Fortune; in particular, her fawning friendship with those whom she intends to cheat, until the moment when she unexpectedly abandons them, and leaves them reeling in agony beyond endurance.
“Having entrusted yourself to Fortune’s dominion, you must conform to your mistress’s ways. What, are you trying to halt the motion of her whirling wheel? Dimmest of fools that you are, you must realize that if the wheel stops turning, it ceases to be the course of chance.”[5]
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