Pay Less Attention to Polls. Here's a 'Sure-Proof Formula to Predict Presidential Election Results'

'Keys to the White House,' by American University Professor Allan Lichtman

American University History Professor Allan Lichtman has accurately predicted every presidential election since 1984 with a 13-factor formula that has nothing to do with public opinion polls or his personal preferences about who would make the best president. He calls it the “Keys to the White House,” a historically based prediction system with true-false questions after reviewing every election since 1860.

Lichtman has called the 2024 election for Kamala Harris.

A possible flaw in this analysis is that both Joe Biden and Donald Trump have been president. That has happened only twice in history — in 1892, when Grover Cleveland won a non-consecutive second term, and in 1912, when Teddy Roosevelt ran as a third-party candidate and lost. 2024 could be a referendum on both Biden and Trump.

It is not yet known whether Biden will be perceived as having foreign policy successes or failures in Israel/Gaza or Ukraine. If the Middle East explodes, if there’s still no prospect of peace or democratic representation for Palestinians, and Biden continues to unconditionally support Israel, that coyld hurt him. If he and his team play a role in a peace settlement, that could help him.

If the Ukrainians capitulate to the Russians despite a huge influx of aid from the U.S., that will hurt Biden, although he could argue the Republicans’ delay of six months in sending that aid turned out to be critical. The Ukrainians have lost momentum and appear to be exhausted, suggesting a stalemate. If Biden and his team succeed in negotiating a Korea-like settlement, that could offset disappointment over Ukraine’s lack of full-scale victory.

We don’t yet know whether the Democratic Convention in August and university campuses in the fall will be dominated by Israeli-Gaza war protests. That could hurt Biden.

Granted, there is some subjectivity to Lichtman’s formula, and on how events are framed in media. To be sure, Fox News will not give Biden credit for anything. Nor will MSNBC give Trump credit for anything.

Lichtman argues that if the answer to most of the following questions is false, the incumbent party will lose. If true, the incumbent party will win.