While an estimated crowd of 14,000+ showed up for the introduction of the Kamala Harris-Tim Walz ticket in Philadelphia, followed in the next days by 15,000+ in Michigan, 12,000 in Wisconsin, 15,000 in Arizona, and 12,000+ in Nevada, Donald Trump was holding no rallies in the swing states, with only one the entire week scheduled for the deep red state of Montana.
“Republicans Worry That Trump Is Having A Public Nervous Breakdown,” reported the (UK) Independent. “ ‘Donald Trump is losing his marbles,’ former Congressman and Republican Adam Kinzinger said.”
In a Joe McCarthy-like smear, Trump called into Fox News to characterize the Harris-Walz ticket as communists. “They want to push the country towards communism right away, if not sooner,” he said. He then attacked Walz for his response to the Minneapolis riots following the George Floyd murder in 2020, though he is on tape praising Walz to the skies for his response and for calling in the National Guard during the riots.
The momentum of Kamala Harris’s presidential campaign is rapidly turning into a social movement. Good news breaks for her that adds velocity while Donald Trump loses support. Polls show her surging ahead of Trump nationally and in swing states. Even 59 percent of Republicans say they would prefer a nominee younger than the 78-year-old Trump. Trump's rants on Truth Social are not helping him. His audiences are declining. Dozens of former Trump allies and aides have turned against him and say he shouldn’t be allowed near the Oval Office again. Only about half of 42 former cabinet members support his re-election. Three — Mike Pence, John Bolten, and Mike Esper — explicitly say they won’t vote for him.
Trump has had a legal setback. His felony election interference case is back with DC Judge Tanya Chutkin after the Supreme Court immunity decision, likely to reveal damaging evidence before the election, possibly with testimony from Pence and others.
Meanwhile, Harris helped Joe Biden negotiate the largest prisoner exchange with Russia since the Cold War. An exuberant crowd of 10,000+ greeted her in Atlanta for a raucous rally. Her positive ads, interviews, and appearances are all over the media (see my playlist of 14 videos on YouTube).
Among them is a sharp rebuke to Trump on immigration, widely considered her most vulnerable issue:
Trump callously lashed out at Biden and Harris over the historic prisoner exchange that freed Paul Whelan, Evan Gershkovich, and others. He whined that Vladimir Putin promised to release Americans to only him alone. He doubled down on false racial attacks on Harris, while Republican senators squirmed (ABC News). He called the U.S. economy “a nightmare” and a “cesspool” while inflation and mortgage interest rates dropped and employment remained strong. He deplored low fuel prices that might help “CRAZY KAMALA HARRIS WIN.”
When the stock market lost a thousand points in one day, he urged people to panic. “Stock markets are crashing, jobs numbers are terrible, we are heading to World War III, and we have two of the most incompetent ‘leaders’ in history,” he wrote on Truth Social. Unlucky for him, the market gained 500 points the next morning.
Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer — the highest-ranking Jewish official ever — is, according to Trump, "a proud member of Hamas.”
If these attacks seem desperate and panicked, they are. Trump’s running mate Vance admits that Biden withdrawing from the race was a “sucker punch” to Trump’s campaign. Update: Trump’s meltdown is continuing into the fourth week since Biden withdrew, as Trump makes bizarre statements and his campaign loses even more steam, historian Heather Cox Richardson reported on August 12.
In Harris’s first week as a candidate, she raised more than $200 million from a million NEW donors and hundreds of thousands of new volunteers. She raised $310 million in July, more than double Trump’s haul (NYT). The Kamala Harris-Tim Walz ticket raised $36 million in its first 24 hours. Viral memes spread widely about her on social media, reaching Gen Z.
Harris must win four of six swing states: PA, MI, WI, AZ, NV, and GA. She is ahead in three and appears to be gaining ground in GA and AZ. She still has a steep uphill climb in Nevada, where undecided voters had tuned out, polls showed Biden losing, the NYT reported and a Democratic Senate seat is at stake. Going door-to-door in 110-degree heat is not an option.
My state of North Carolina, which grows by about 100,000 people per year, is now in play. Trump won it by just 150,000 votes in 2020, half his 2016 margin. Democrat Barack Obama won it by 14,000 votes in 2008 with a highly energized campaign.
My wife and I have visited Chatham County (NC) Democratic headquarters to volunteer. Five other people volunteered for our time slot. It’s a good problem to have. We’ll be canvassing door-to-door soon.
Kamala Harris has “more than a campaign now,” Rep. Steven Horsford of Nevada told the Associated Press. “It’s a movement” that is helping down-ballot races. His campaign, for example, has seen a huge surge in donations and volunteers. Historian Heather Cox Richardson chronicled the emergence of this movement.
Black ladies, white dudes, Taylor Swift fans (Swifties), and other identity groups are volunteering to elect Harris. After criticizing “childless cat ladies,” Vance incited tens of thousands of them to organize for Harris and “against fascism.” Republicans for Harris are surging on Twitter, Zoom, and YouTube with testimonials about how they supported Trump in the past but can no longer do so, as the Meidas Touch podcast shared.
Irrational Trump Surrogates
Dana Milbank of The Washington Post reported on outrageous statements of Trump supporters.
Trump ally and former adviser Sebastian Gorka could be seen on television calling Harris “a disaster whose only qualification is having a vagina and the right skin color. She’s a DEI hire, right? She’s a woman, she’s colored. Therefore she’s got to be good.”
And there on Fox News was host Jesse Watters, a Trump mouthpiece, telling viewers that he “heard the scientists say the other day that when a man votes for a woman, he actually transitions into a woman.”
It’s Still A Very Close Race
One question now is whether Harris supporters are engaging in irrational exuberance. She could still be defeated in the key swing states, and -- nightmare scenario -- lose them by 80,000 votes or less while winning the popular vote by millions. As much as Democrats hope for a landslide, the margin is still likely to be razor-thin in the electoral college.
Momentum Defined
Successful political campaigns are all about momentum — first a phenomenon in physics, and later a phenomenon in politics and marketing. Momentum is
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