Black Swan Theories Are Fashionable

But do they survive deeper analysis from determinism and chaos theory?

Most events in the news are parts of larger patterns that can be anticipated and prepared for if there is the will and infrastructure to do so. Occasionally, highly improbable and totally unanticipated events startle and shake people up. These events are called “black swans.”

But some of these so-called black swans are not in fact improbable and unanticipated. Physical changes on the planet, resulting in harsher extreme weather, the melting of polar ice caps, and rising sea levels, are NOT going to be extremely rare events. As shocking as they may be to those who experience them, they are